Last Week at The Wolverine Den

The 2023 CFP Semifinal - The Rose Bowl

Michigan 27 - Alabama 20 (OT)

Rose Bowl Stadium

January 1, 2024 - 2:00 p.m. PT

Tailgate Pictures

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Game Preview

The Michigan Wolverines have qualified for the College Football Playoffs for the 3rd consecutive year. The semifinals are in the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA against the Alabama Crimson Tide. Michigan has learned from the last two years in the playoffs and now faces a team that appears to be peaking at the right time. It is Alabama, the team that has won 3 National Championships since the playoffs began in the 2014 season (along with 3 runner-up finishes). The Crimson Tide have been somewhat overlooked this year after an early season loss to Texas. But after 11 wins in a row, including the SEC Championship over Georgia, the Crimson Tide have landed into the playoffs for the 8th time in the 10-year history of the format. Alabama has the most National Championships in history with 18. Michigan is 2nd with 11. Michigan has the most wins in college football with 1,002. Alabama is 2nd with 965. The two teams have met in bowl games four times, each winning twice. Alabama coach Nick Sabin coached (and assistant coached) at Michigan State for ten years and at Ohio State for two years and reportedly still harbors Spartan/Buckeye hatred of Michigan. His career coaching record against Michigan stands at 7-7. You can't ask for a better matchup.

Alabama is an immensely talented team. They are consistently at the top of the annual recruiting rankings and produce NFL-caliber talent. On the current roster, Alabama has 18 five-star players and 56 four-star players (out of 85 scholarship players). Michigan, meanwhile, has only 2 five-star players and 45 four-star players on its roster. The Tide are led by QB Jalen Milroe. He is the prototype dual threat quarterback, in the mold of Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson. Milroe has a strong arm and is both fast and elusive. He has developed over the year to become a real threat every time he is on the field. But early in the season, he played poorly against Texas and Alabama lost. He was benched following the Texas game but was reinstated as the starting QB a week later (after Alabama figured out that they had no one better to replace Milroe). And Milroe responded by leading the team to the SEC Championship and the College Football Playoffs. He finished the year completing 65.5% of his passes while averaging 226 yards per game. He threw for 23 TDs while only throwing 6 interceptions. He also ran the ball for 765 yards on 102 sack-adjusted carries with 12 more TDs. But Alabama gave up 43 sacks on the year, one of the highest rates in the nation. The top Alabama running back, Jace McClellan, missed the SEC Championship with an injury but is expected to be back for the Rose Bowl. The top receivers are Jermaine Burton and speedster Isaiah Bond. The offensive line has improved since the start of the year as the pass protection has improved and the offense has become very balanced.

The Crimson Tide defense is not as formidable as in prior years, but is still very good. Edge rusher Dallas Turner is a likely top 5 pick in the NFL draft. He and Chris Braswell, the other side edge, have combined for 17 sacks and 24 TFLs this year. The two cornerbacks Terrion Arnold and Kool-Aid McKinstry might be the best duo in the nation. And the leading tackler is true Freshman safety Caleb Downs. Special teams for Alabama are solid in all phases.

In the two previous playoffs, Michigan did not play their best games. They were overmatched against Georgia in 2021, down 14-0 in the 1st quarter and 27-3 at the half. Last year against TCU, Michigan was down 21-6 at the half. In each game, the Wolverines failed to get much pressure on the quarterback (no sacks against Georgia and only one against TCU) and we turned the ball over 3 times in each game. So what's different? In 2021, Michigan had a +2-turnover margin for the season. In 2022, it jumped up to +8. This year, the Wolverines are #2 in the nation in turnover margin at +17. We can't turn the ball over and expect to win.

There are other keys to this game. Michigan must get pressure on Milroe while not giving up big plays. Alabama allowed 43 sacks this year and Michigan needs to add to that total. Against Georgia, we gave up 2 long TD passes and 6 plays over 20 yards. Against TCU, we gave up two long touchdowns (69 and 76 yards) plus two pick-6s. Alabama is the most explosive offensive team the Wolverines have played this year. Twenty four percent of their passes are thrown over 20 yards downfield, one of the highest rates in the nation. The running game is also explosive due to the ability of Milroe. We need to stop the big plays.

At the same time, Michigan needs to stay true to what got them here. That is to control the game flow. While Michigan's offense has not been spectacular over the last 4 games, they have faced the top defenses in the country in Penn St, Ohio St and Iowa. Alabama is not in this class and the Wolverines must control the ball and score. Colston Loveland is a key match up as Alabama has struggled this year when facing good tight ends. Look for lots of two tight end sets for Michigan that will give them options for power rushing as well as play action.

Michigan has used a new approach in bowl practices this year, less hitting and more focus on the mental part of the game. After losing its last two playoff games, a change was needed. This will be the 21st Rose Bowl for Michigan and they come in with an 8-12 record. Alabama has played seven times in the Rose Bowl, but only once since 1946.

Alabama leads the all-time series 3-2.

The Wolverines are a 1½-point favorite.

Post-Game Summary

It was an incredible game from start to finish. Two titans of college football battling to death, and then to overtime where the Michigan Wolverines prevailed 27-20. Michigan finally got past the college football playoffs semifinals and will now play for the National Championship.

The Wolverines controlled most of the early game with strong defense and opportune offense. But a few critical mistakes gave the Crimson Tide a short field and allowed the halftime score to be much closer than the game really was. Bama adjusted at halftime and started running more to the edge and that opened some inside scrambles for Jalen Milroe. For the first time all season, Michigan trailed in the 4th quarter. The Wolverines got the ball with 4:41 left in the game on their own 25 trailing 20-13. It was the first time Michigan had to score all season. And they we up to the challenge. An 8-play, 75-yard drive tied the score at 20. Then came overtime. Michigan had the ball first and scored quickly on 2 Blake Corum runs. Then it was Alabama's turn. On 4th and goal from the 3-yard line, Milroe was stuffed by the Michigan defense and the Mighty Crimson Tide were conquered.

JJ McCarthy was named the offensive MVP for his 221-yard passing performance with 3 TDs. Blake Corum broke the Career Rushing TD record with his overtime score. But it was the Michigan defense that really won this game. Michigan had 6 sacks and 10 Tackles-for-Loss. They held Alabama to their reported lowest offensive output in 14 years, a mere 288 total yards. The defense overcame numerous special teams gaffes and failures that made the game closer than it should have been.

But in the end, the Maize and Blue made the plays to win the game. They now take on the only other undefeated team in college football, the Washington Huskies in the National Championship.

Houston, here we come!

Craig's Prediction

27-21

Steve's Prediction

24-20

Tim's Prediction

24-21

Brown's Prediction

24-21

Steve 41½, Brown 35½, Craig 32, Tim 31

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